Low consumer confidence may prove for a slow economic recovery.
An index released last week by the Conference Board Consumer Research Center showed that, despite falling unemployment rates, Americans continue to be pessimistic about the economy. This is likely to result in reduced consumer spending, according to the report, a factor that contributes to gross domestic product growth and economic recovery.
Decreased confidence about present, future lead to reduced spending
The recently released Consumer Confidence Index showed that current and six-month outlooks on the economy both decreased in February. The Index decreased from 56.5 in January to 46. The Expectations Index decreased 77.3 to 63.8. The scores are measured on a scale of 100.
Lynn Franco, director of the research center, said business conditions may have pushed the Situation Index to its lowest level since 1983.
“Consumers also remain extremely pessimistic about their income prospects. This combination of earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to curb spending,” Franco said.
A recent Gallup poll showed that consumers on all income levels cut back on spending in January. Middle- and lower-income families cut back 13 percent since December, while upper-income households spent 14 percent less.
This brought their average spending for that month close to 2009 levels. The release of the Gallup poll also coincided with the one-year anniversary of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, causing some to reflect upon progress since the recession.
“While this debate may be of great importance politically, it has little real meaning for the lives of most Americans,” the Gallup report said. “Instead, policymakers would seem to be better off focusing on what they need to do to get women and upper-income and older Americans more comfortable about spending.”
Optimism in a state hit hardest by the recession
One of the states hit hardest bit the recession has a slightly more optimistic outlook, according to a State of the State report by Michigan State University. Forty-six percent of respondents said that their economic situation in the fall of 2009 was either good or excellent. This was up from 40 percent at the beginning of the year, and is the highest mark recorded since 2007.
“There’s a lot of reasons to believe we’re sort of at the bottom and beginning to inch upward,” Charles Ballard, MSU chief economist, told Business Review West Michigan.
The state’s unemployment rate peaked in June at 15.2 percent, higher than any other state. This coincided with bankruptcies at General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC, both major employers in Detroit. The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistic show unemployment was 14.6 percent in December.
National unemployment rates have also decreased recently. Despite 22,000 job losses in January, unemployment fell to 9.7 from 10 percent that month.